Let's take a brief look at current and prospective candidates for the Democratic nomination in 2008:
Hillary Clinton
Pluses: Clear frontrunner in name recognition, can probably raise more money than anyone else, has the benefit of being married to the brightest political mind of our time.
Minuses: Higher negative ratings than anyone ever elected president, probably needs every penny of that bankroll to gain enough momentum to make anti-war Democrats forget that she voted "Aye" on the big issue, has the drawback of being married to the brightest political mind of her generation and she pales in comparison.
Outlook: Hillary HAS to win early and often, or she will be toppled. Has a tough choice to make whether to contest Iowa or move on to New Hampshire. Despite her tough talk on being able to beat the Republicans who she says "fear" her and Bill, Hillary is, in my view, too polarizing a figure to make history and become the first woman president.
Barack Obama
Pluses: Excitement at the mere mention of his name. Charisma, eloquence. Can raise tons of money.
Minuses: Three years ago, Barack Obama was a state senator. Now he's running for president. Is that too far, too fast?
Outlook: I have this sense when I look at Senator Obama that I'm looking at a future president of the United States. I'm just not sure he's taking the oath in 2009. He's a first term senator, he doesn't have much of a record, and he will have to avoid giving people an excuse to say, "Yeah, but...." if he is to make history of his own.
Then again, they said this about John F. Kennedy in 1960, you're too young, you have the Catholic hurdle to overcome, etc....
John Edwards
Pluses: Like Obama, charming and eloquent But Edwards has the advantage of having been through the fire of a national campaign before. Like Hillary, has high name recognition, but without the high negative ratings. Strong so far in Iowa, and a win there would give him tremendous momentum going into New Hampshire. Has a clear sense of where he wants to take the country.
Minuses: Has he tacked too far to the left in the effort to outflank Hillary? Also, Edwards only had one term in the Senate and thus can't present himself as the credentials candidate. Hillary has the resume, Obama has the excitement. What does Edwards have?
Outlook: Everyone is so obsessed with the possibility of the first female president, the first black president. Guess what? In all likelihood, it's probably going to be another white male. That's unfortunate, but I lived in a "red" state for 25 years. Maybe here in Massachusetts we don't see color or gender as much, but come on. It's still there. And as tacky as this sounds, this is good for Edwards. He said last week on Bill Maher's show that he's perfectly comfortable with the idea of being people's second choice as long as he ends up with the nomination. And he just might.
The Rest
Biden, Dodd, Vilsack, Kucinich, etc.
Well, Vilsack dropped out today in a concession to
A. Reality
and
B. The fact that he was the governor of Iowa until last month and yesterday he was polling fifth in Iowa behind Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Mayor George Shinn of River City.
Anyway, none of these guys are going to be the nominee. Every four years somebody runs for president even though they're running behind the "Also Receiving Votes" asterisk in the polls. They do it because they remember Jimmy Carter in 1976, criscrossing Iowa for a year and a half and catching fire just at the right time. Well, lightning strikes are remarkable because they are rare. Oh, and stop saying Bill Clinton came out of nowhere in 1992. If you didn't know about him in 1991, you weren't paying attention.
So there you have it. In all likelihood, it's Hillary, Obama, or Edwards. My guess and my preference is John Edwards, provided that one remaining possible candidate declines to make the race. Yeah, I know, I spoiled the surprise by posting his picture. C'mon Al. Run for president. Save the planet.
