So now we come to the contenders for the Republican nomination for president. Let's look at this in terms of strategy, or if you're George W. Bush, strategery. Today, we'll start with the man who according to the most recent polls is the frontrunner for the nomination, the former mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani.
At first, I didn't understand why Rudy Giuliani would run for president. He's a smart guy, he's old enough to remember what happened to Nelson Rockefeller, what happens to New York Republicans with different ideas on social issues who run for their party's nomination. They're demonized, mocked, booed at the convention, and most importantly, not nominated. And that was the pre-Reagan Republican Party, when someone like Giuliani would only be tarred and feathered figuratively. Now, they might actually do it.
So why is Rudy running? Because he thinks he can take that political currency he built up as "America's Mayor" and buy a ticket to the White House. Maybe he's right, but not for the reason that many people think. More on that later.
When you look at the race for the Republican nomination, for Rudolph Giuliani to become his party's candidate for president, he will have to overcome two long standing axioms among Republicans: that the party faithful will not accept a social liberal as their nominee, and that Republicans are a party of primogeniture; they nominate a guy when it's his "turn", and it's John McCain's turn this time.
Let's look at the ideological question first. At the risk of overusing Kennedy analogies, Giuliani's current lead in the polls reminds me of JFK in 1960. Senator Kennedy held an early lead over Hubert Humphrey in heavily Protestant West Virginia. This was surprising because of Kennedy's Catholicism. So what happened? The voters of West Virginia learned more about Kennedy as Election Day approached, found out he was Catholic, and collectively said "Never mind!"
This is what's going to happen when Republican voters start paying closer attention. They're going to get a closer look at Rudy's position on abortion, on gay rights, they're going to see a picture of Rudy in drag,
they're going to learn that he's on his third marriage after cheating on his second wife, and suddenly "America's Mayor" is not going to be twenty five points ahead of John McCain for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.But here's the thing: JFK won the West Virginia primary in 1960, and maybe Giuliani can win the Republican nomination the same way: by reframing the debate. Kennedy turned the Catholic question around by telling patriotic tough minded West Virginians that nobody asked his religion when he commanded a PT Boat in the Navy during World War II, and nobody asked his brother's religion when he volunteered for a dangerous bomber mission that he never came back from. Kennedy spoke to the things that resonated with the particular voters he was courting, and diverted attention away from the aspects of his own personality and record that were less favorable to run on. Giuliani, if he walks a very delicate line, might be able to do the same thing. Here's how:
First of all, and this is purely a political calculation, Giuliani needs the war to continue, because while Giuliani is for it, McCain is REALLY for it. If McCain were a company, he'd be the corporate sponsor of the surge plan. This hurts McCain among independents and Democrats, generates negative stories about him in the press, and dampens speculation that McCain would be unbeatable in a general election, which was always presumed to be his strongest selling point. The continuation of the war also helps Giuliani by providing a nice contrast with the current occupant of the Oval Office, Dick Ch- I mean, George W. Bush.
This is the key point. It's not merely Giuliani running because he's a "hero." That doesn't get you elected. Do you remember President John Glenn? Didn't think so. No, Rudy's great opportunity here is not to run in the first open contest for the Republican nomination since 9/11, it's to run in the first open contest for the Republican nomination since 9/11 and eight years of the Bush Administration. It's not public desire for a hero that Rudy can capitalize on, it's the hunger for executive ability. It's not just 9/11, it's the cleanup of New York City, the ability to succeed as the Republican mayor of one of America's most heavily Democratic cities. It's the promise of managerial excellence at a time when mere competence would be a relief. Do you think if a major natural disaster struck the United States, President Giuliani would be playing the guitar?
http://hughesforamerica.typepad.com/hughes_for_america/2005/08/august_2930_200.html
A couple of final points: First, this commentary is not an endorsement of Giuliani's candidacy. If it were up to me, based on his record, I would vote for him - to be Chancellor of Germany, circa 1933. Second, in considering Giuliani's prospects, I'm pointing out HOW it can be done, not predicting that it will happen. It may be possible within the realm of physics to demonstrate how a snowball might prosper in a Hades-like environment. Whether it actually will? Don't put any money on it.
So, if not Rudy, then who? McCain? Romney? Brownback? The corpse of Ronald Reagan? (Hmm....)
In the near future I'll be examining the prospects for other contenders. And if it looks like I'm spending more time analyzing the Republicans than the Democrats, you're right. And the reason is simple: it's much harder to figure out why people vote Republican!
Postscript Wednesday March 7: See?
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/03/07/giuliani.baptists.ap/index.html
