Thoughts on recent developments in the presidential race as I watch John McCain declare victory in Florida and become the clear frontrunner for his party’s nomination:
This is going to be a different post from what you are accustomed to reading. This is true because I am, in a sense, answering mail from the suggestion box. I have been asked to expound on the Kennedy endorsement of Barack Obama. I have also fielded a request for an explanation as to why Hillary Clinton turns so many people off. Those two issues dovetail nicely, so I’m glad to fulfill the request by writing this post. However, the other difference in this post is that it must now begin with a confession, or at least a declaration: I have no idea what’s going to happen in this race. In keeping with the theme of unpredictability, I will put no planning into the composition of this post. No outline, no preconceived thoughts, no structure real or implied. I’m just gonna write, and see what happens.
As I have mentioned before, I have spent countless hours reading about the American presidency. I’m the sort of deranged individual who will read Richard Nixon’s autobiography, then go back and read it again a few years later. And generally, when I’m reading these 900 page books, my favorite parts are the recounting of presidential elections. I love them. I love the ’48 campaign between Dewey and Truman. I love 1960, when Nixon and Kennedy, two supremely gifted politicians, squared off. I love the ’84 campaign, because it’s the first one in which I mastered all the details, knew all the candidates, understood all the issues. Did I have a girlfriend then? Um, no.
Still, despite my close familiarity with the details of every modern presidential election, I have to say I am utterly stymied by this one. There are just too many variables. First serious female candidate. First serious black candidate. First time since 1936 with no obvious Republican nominee. The polls are suddenly all wrong. Conventional wisdom does not apply. I wrote in this blog about McCain’s fading chances just as they were beginning to fade. I was right, he faded. And although I sensed he was regaining momentum as the voting in New Hampshire drew near, I have to admit, I am stunned to see him on the verge of the nomination.
John McCain is following in George W. Bush’s footsteps in more ways than one. Obviously, he’s after Bush’s job and hopes to be his successor. But there’s more. In the 2000 election, at least a dozen improbable things had to happen to make Bush president. He ran with a thin resume against an incumbent vice president who was manifestly qualified to be president. He had to run against the prosperity of the Clinton years. He had to run on domestic policy, normally fertile ground for Democrats, and hope he wasn’t asked any foreign policy questions because he didn’t (doesn’t) know anything about foreign policy. All of those things broke his way. Then, on Election Day, he still came out behind in the national vote, and probably in the intent of the voters of Florida. And another series of improbable events took place that ultimately resulted in Bush being declared the winner.
That’s what’s happening with John McCain. He won Florida tonight, polling ahead of the economy candidate Mitt Romney among voters most concerned about the economy! By McCain’s own admission, he’s hardly an economic expert. He barely talks about the issue, and yet somehow he won an economic debate against a businessman turned candidate, and did it with a poorly financed campaign.
McCain has been aided by a remarkable series of events. The rise of Mike Huckabee in Iowa benefited the senator from Arizona, simply because it hurt Mitt Romney. The presence of a multi-candidate field in South Carolina allowed McCain to win the state that derailed his campaign eight years ago. In a one on one showdown with Romney in South Carolina and/or Florida, Romney probably wins. Think about that for a second. There were a whole slew of Republican candidates for president to challenge McCain’s inevitability as the Republican nominee. But the presence of all those candidates split the vote and ultimately aided McCain’s candidacy.
Having said all this, I don’t think that this race is over. While the media rushes to coronate John McCain, I think I’ll hang back before pronouncing this one done. The available balance on one of Mitt Romney’s credit cards probably exceeds John McCain’s net worth. Next Tuesday brings a wave of primaries from coast to coast, requiring expensive radio and television ads and non-stop campaigning. And, of course, there are still a sizeable number of conservatives who will not accept John McCain as their leader. Think McCain’s won over the right wing? Hold your nose with one hand and type rushlimbaugh.com with the other, and you’ll be disabused of that notion fairly quickly.
As I said, I have no reliable sense of what’s going to happen. I would only issue a prediction at this point if it came with an expiration date. Right now, and I emphasize those two words, it looks like McCain, with maybe Huckabee as his running mate. But who knows?
If I seem uncertain about the identity of the Republican nominee, I’m absolutely puzzled as to whom the Democrats will nominate. Last week I studied many state by state polls to try to break down the huge February 5 primary and identify a trend. It seemed clear to me at that time that Hillary Clinton was the likely Democratic nominee. Although I was wise enough to say anything could happen, that’s what the results of my study seemed to indicate. Now, in the wake of Obama’s overwhelming victory in South Carolina, and his subsequent endorsement by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, again, who knows?
I can’t tell you on the basis of the endorsement who’s going to win. I can say, however, that if an endorsement ever mattered, this is the time. For all the hoopla over Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Obama, Ted Kennedy’s is more important. The Oprah endorsement was a big news story, and demographically helped Obama by boosting his support among women. However, Obama didn’t really need the publicity Oprah’s endorsement gave him; he was already a celebrity candidate attracting an enormous amount of attention. And while the support among women helped, Obama was already competitive in that area.
Kennedy’s endorsement, however, could make a crucial difference in at least two ways. First, in a demographic sense, the magic of the Kennedy name still resonates deeply in the Latino community, and Ted Kennedy can deliver votes in a demographic that Clinton has thus far dominated. In a political sense, Kennedy can move organized labor into Obama’s corner. And the Kennedy endorsement, combined with those of Senator John Kerry and Governor Deval Patrick, probably puts Massachusetts in play.
But the real importance of the Kennedy endorsement is symbolic. Kennedy endorsed Obama at American University in Washington. This is not a randomly selected location. American University is where, in 1963, President John F. Kennedy gave one of his most important and well remembered speeches. In the course of a call to reexamine our attitudes toward the Soviet Union, President Kennedy said the following:
“For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, we all breathe the same air, we all cherish our children's futures, and we are all mortal."
And so when Senator Ted Kennedy took the stage at that same institution of higher learning and all but anointed Barack Obama as his brother’s political heir, it shook the ground of Democratic politics.
It’s one thing for the media to make comparisons between Obama and JFK, or for me to do so on my blog that twelve people read. This was something else. And it sent a signal to Democrats across the country, saying that Obama’s candidacy is not some fleeting cause. It’s not a quixotic endeavor like Howard Dean’s candidacy four years ago. This is a serious effort to change the face of the Democratic Party.And, of course, this was a dramatically unwelcome event for the Clintons, because, after all, they have been the face of the Democratic Party for fifteen years. What Kennedy’s endorsement does is shatter the sense that the establishment of the party is in Hillary’s corner and that ultimately her nomination is inevitable. This is not to say she’s finished; she may well be the nominee. But she’ll have to “go Churchill” to get it – blood, sweat and tears required. She’s already put forth the tears. Will she offer the other two, and will it be enough? I don’t know.
I can tell you this: I hope not. This brings me to the other requested topic, the case against Hillary. I don’t think that there is any single reason for the hatred she engenders. Much of it is undeserved, the byproduct of hypocrisy toward strong and assertive women. Some of it is thoughtless and shallow misinterpretation of her based on her relationship with Bill Clinton. Many people have long believed that their relationship is one of convenience rather than meaning. I don’t buy it.
No, my problems with Hillary are simpler to quantify. As a politician, I find her lacking. I can’t listen to her speak without thinking how much I’d rather listen to Obama, or Edwards, or her husband, for that matter. She’s simply not an inspiring leader. I also oppose her candidacy because I don’t want a co-presidency. I don’t want Bill Clinton pulling Hillary’s strings any more than I approved of President Reagan deciding what to do based on what Nancy’s astrologer said.
Back in 1962, when Ted Kennedy first ran for the Senate, he participated in a debate with his opponent for the Democratic nomination, who said something to the effect of “If his name was Edward Moore, rather than Edward Moore Kennedy, his candidacy would be a joke.” This was probably true, but in the midst of Camelot it didn’t matter; Teddy won in a walk. Consider this, though: If her name were Hillary Rodham, rather than Hillary Rodham Clinton, would she be within reach of the Democratic nomination for president?
Hillary is attempting to restore the Clinton dynasty, and her time, and her husband’s, is past. If this election unfolds as I hope it does, her candidacy will be remembered primarily as their failure to exit gracefully from the stage. This is not an election to restore the House of Clinton in opposition to the House of Bush. Ironically, it took the last brother of America’s greatest political dynasty to crystallize this argument. The heart of JFK’s New Frontier was a passing of the torch to a new generation of Americans. It is time to pass it again, to the junior senator from Illinois, the next president of the United States, Barack Obama.
